About 12% of Americans move each year, with most relocations happening between the ages of 18 and 45. When people move from one state to another, it can significantly impact electoral behavior, especially in key battleground states where the margin of victory is often less than 1%.

At Datazapp, we’ve analyzed data on out-of-state movers since the November 2020 election. Using party affiliation and our party-leaning model, we’ve explored the migration patterns of Democrats and Republicans.
 

Let’s dive into the data to uncover how these moves might reshape the political landscape in crucial states.

Chart below shows the amount of out-of-state movers eligible to vote in their new home state as a % of the state's 2020 registered voters for that party.

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Arizona

Arizona gained net 0.40% (15,531) Republicans while also gaining 0.17% (6,562) Democrats. Remember, President Biden, the Democratic Presidential candidate, won Arizona by just 10,457 votes in 2020!

These shifts might have implications for upcoming elections.

Florida

Florida saw a notable shift with a gain of net 0.42% (44,000) Democrats and 1.51% (158,189) Republicans.

President Trump won Florida by about 373,000 votes in 2020. The recent 1.51% gain should make the Republican presence even stronger in the state.

Georgia

Georgia gained net 0.36% (18,681) Democrats and lost 0.13% (6,970) Republicans. President Biden won Georgia by just 11,779 votes in the last election!

The slight Democratic gain and Republican loss might be crucial in maintaining this tightly contested state.

Michigan

Michigan saw a slight shift, losing net 0.02% (-1,023) Democrats and a larger loss of 0.20% (-10,881) Republicans.

Michigan was a key battleground state where President Biden won by just over 154,000 votes in the last election!

Nevada

Nevada gained net 0.18% (2,603) Democrats while losing 0.77% (-11,191) Republicans.

Nevada was another closely contested state, with Biden winning by about 33,600 votes in 2020!

North Carolina

North Carolina experienced a gain of net 0.35% (17,918) Democrats and a slight loss of 0.09% (-4,727) Republicans.

This state has been a Republican stronghold but saw significant competition in recent elections.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania lost net 0.71% (-51,994) Democrats and 0.63% (-46,261) Republicans.

Pennsylvania was one of the most critical states in 2020, where Biden won by just over 80,000 votes!

Texas

Texas gained net 0.44% (58,730) Democrats and 0.76% (100,846) Republicans.

Texas, traditionally a Republican state, has seen increasing competition from Democrats in recent elections.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin gained net 0.56% (18,895) Democrats and 0.50% (17,033) Republicans. Biden won Wisconsin by a narrow margin of just over 20,000 votes in 2020.

We have the data for your campaigns:

• Phone & Email appends
• Targeted Lists of Registered Voters, Political Donors, & Non-Registered
• Scrubs to determine Phone Type & Email Deliverability